Key Takeaways — Index Moves (as of 7 Sep 2026)
- Semiconductors — melt-up, then a breather. PHLX Semi (SOX) +104% YoY / +61% YTD on the AI-capex supercycle (record chip sales, hyperscaler buildouts led by ~$190B Google capex) — but −5% over the past month as it consolidates. Forbes, Sep 2026 ↗
- Software / cloud — from “SaaSpocalypse” to re-rating. BVP Emerging Cloud +37% and iShares Software (IGV) +19% over 6M (though IGV is still −4% YTD) as early-2026 AI-disruption fears flipped to AI-monetization optimism. CNBC, Sep 2026 ↗
- Rates — long end up even as the Fed cuts. US 10Y +64bp over 6M to 4.78% while SOFR fell −76bp YoY — a term-premium / supply-driven steepener. Falling SOFR is a direct tailwind to floating-rate borrower coupons. Ferrante Capital, 2026 ↗
- Tech credit — healed but still penalized. USD HY Tech OAS −115bp over 6M to ~432bp (back from the ~560bp March spike), tracking the equity recovery — yet still ~165bp wide of broad HY (267bp), so the market keeps a tech-specific risk premium. (Bloomberg)
- Backdrop firm. Loan-market average bid 95.6 (+1pt / 6M); ISM Services 54.1 and Manufacturing 54.6 — both in expansion. (Bloomberg)
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